Post-2024 election defeat, the Democratic field for the 2028 presidential nomination remains wide open, with California Governor Gavin Newsom leading trader consensus at 24% implied probability due to his national profile, executive experience, and term limit ending in 2026, positioning him for an early run amid party soul-searching. Recent podcast appearances and criticism of party leadership have boosted his visibility over Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8%), whose progressive appeal energizes the base but faces electability concerns, and Jon Ossoff (6%), a young Georgia senator with battleground credentials. Kamala Harris trails at 4% post-loss damage. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, fundraising prowess, key endorsements, and swing-state performances, with no incumbent or clear frontrunner locking in support yet.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom 24.3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%
Jon Ossoff 6.2%
Kamala Harris 4.5%
$916,783,412 Vol.
$916,783,412 Vol.

Gavin Newsom
24%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%

Jon Ossoff
6%

Kamala Harris
4%

Josh Shapiro
4%

Pete Buttigieg
4%

J.B. Pritzker
3%

Mark Kelly
2%

Andy Beshear
2%

Jon Stewart
2%

James Talarico
2%

Ruben Gallego
2%

Wes Moore
2%

Gretchen Whitmer
2%

Ro Khanna
2%

Michelle Obama
1%

Chris Murphy
1%

Rahm Emanuel
1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1%

Stephen A. Smith
1%

Mark Cuban
1%

Roy Cooper
1%

Oprah Winfrey
1%

Gina Raimondo
1%

Cory Booker
1%

Liz Cheney
1%

John Fetterman
1%

LeBron James
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

MrBeast
1%

Chelsea Clinton
1%

George Clooney
1%

Andrew Yang
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Jared Polis
1%

Hillary Clinton
1%

Barack Obama
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Beto O’Rourke
1%

Phil Murphy
1%

Hunter Biden
1%

Raphael Warnock
1%

Bernie Sanders
1%

Jasmine Crockett
1%
Gavin Newsom 24.3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%
Jon Ossoff 6.2%
Kamala Harris 4.5%
$916,783,412 Vol.
$916,783,412 Vol.

Gavin Newsom
24%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%

Jon Ossoff
6%

Kamala Harris
4%

Josh Shapiro
4%

Pete Buttigieg
4%

J.B. Pritzker
3%

Mark Kelly
2%

Andy Beshear
2%

Jon Stewart
2%

James Talarico
2%

Ruben Gallego
2%

Wes Moore
2%

Gretchen Whitmer
2%

Ro Khanna
2%

Michelle Obama
1%

Chris Murphy
1%

Rahm Emanuel
1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1%

Stephen A. Smith
1%

Mark Cuban
1%

Roy Cooper
1%

Oprah Winfrey
1%

Gina Raimondo
1%

Cory Booker
1%

Liz Cheney
1%

John Fetterman
1%

LeBron James
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

MrBeast
1%

Chelsea Clinton
1%

George Clooney
1%

Andrew Yang
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Jared Polis
1%

Hillary Clinton
1%

Barack Obama
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Beto O’Rourke
1%

Phil Murphy
1%

Hunter Biden
1%

Raphael Warnock
1%

Bernie Sanders
1%

Jasmine Crockett
1%
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET
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0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
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0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Post-2024 election defeat, the Democratic field for the 2028 presidential nomination remains wide open, with California Governor Gavin Newsom leading trader consensus at 24% implied probability due to his national profile, executive experience, and term limit ending in 2026, positioning him for an early run amid party soul-searching. Recent podcast appearances and criticism of party leadership have boosted his visibility over Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8%), whose progressive appeal energizes the base but faces electability concerns, and Jon Ossoff (6%), a young Georgia senator with battleground credentials. Kamala Harris trails at 4% post-loss damage. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, fundraising prowess, key endorsements, and swing-state performances, with no incumbent or clear frontrunner locking in support yet.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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