Trader consensus favors New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart at 52% to win Connecticut's Republican gubernatorial primary, propelled by her dominant fundraising—over $1 million raised since launching her campaign last fall—and leads in early GOP straw polls showing her ahead among party activists. State Rep. Ryan Fazio follows at 33%, gaining traction with conservative voters through aggressive grassroots organizing and criticism of Stewart's moderate positions. Former New York Lt. Gov. Betsy McCaughey's 12% reflects lingering name recognition, while Darien First Selectman Harry Arora at 9.5% and others trail amid a quiet field. No major developments in the past week, but the August 2026 primary leaves room for endorsements, debates, or scandals to shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedErin Stewart 52%
Ryan Fazio 24%
Harry Arora 8.0%
Betsy McCaughey 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
Erin Stewart
52%
Ryan Fazio
34%
Harry Arora
10%
Betsy McCaughey
15%
Timothy Wilcox
2%
Erin Stewart 52%
Ryan Fazio 24%
Harry Arora 8.0%
Betsy McCaughey 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
Erin Stewart
$0 Vol.
52%
Ryan Fazio
$0 Vol.
34%
Harry Arora
$0 Vol.
10%
Betsy McCaughey
$384 Vol.
15%
Timothy Wilcox
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 9:57 AM ET
Volume
$384End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$384End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart at 52% to win Connecticut's Republican gubernatorial primary, propelled by her dominant fundraising—over $1 million raised since launching her campaign last fall—and leads in early GOP straw polls showing her ahead among party activists. State Rep. Ryan Fazio follows at 33%, gaining traction with conservative voters through aggressive grassroots organizing and criticism of Stewart's moderate positions. Former New York Lt. Gov. Betsy McCaughey's 12% reflects lingering name recognition, while Darien First Selectman Harry Arora at 9.5% and others trail amid a quiet field. No major developments in the past week, but the August 2026 primary leaves room for endorsements, debates, or scandals to shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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