Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94% to retain California's 16th Congressional District, driven by its D+26 Cook PVI—ranking among the nation's most Democratic seats—and Rep. Sam Liccardo's incumbency after his 58% 2024 general election win in a top-two matchup against fellow Democrat Evan Low. Silicon Valley demographics, with affluent, educated voters, reinforce this edge, as seen in consistent Democratic margins exceeding 50% historically. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, with filings closed and the June 2 nonpartisan primary looming. Realistic challenges include a scandal tarnishing Liccardo, a fragmented Democratic primary yielding a weak nominee, or a national Republican wave propelling a GOP contender through to November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedCA-16 House Election Winner
CA-16 House Election Winner
$19,729 Vol.
$19,729 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$19,729 Vol.
$19,729 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$15,886 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$3,844 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94% to retain California's 16th Congressional District, driven by its D+26 Cook PVI—ranking among the nation's most Democratic seats—and Rep. Sam Liccardo's incumbency after his 58% 2024 general election win in a top-two matchup against fellow Democrat Evan Low. Silicon Valley demographics, with affluent, educated voters, reinforce this edge, as seen in consistent Democratic margins exceeding 50% historically. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, with filings closed and the June 2 nonpartisan primary looming. Realistic challenges include a scandal tarnishing Liccardo, a fragmented Democratic primary yielding a weak nominee, or a national Republican wave propelling a GOP contender through to November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$19,729End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94% to retain California's 16th Congressional District, driven by its D+26 Cook PVI—ranking among the nation's most Democratic seats—and Rep. Sam Liccardo's incumbency after his 58% 2024 general election win in a top-two matchup against fellow Democrat Evan Low. Silicon Valley demographics, with affluent, educated voters, reinforce this edge, as seen in consistent Democratic margins exceeding 50% historically. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, with filings closed and the June 2 nonpartisan primary looming. Realistic challenges include a scandal tarnishing Liccardo, a fragmented Democratic primary yielding a weak nominee, or a national Republican wave propelling a GOP contender through to November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,729End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94% to retain California's 16th Congressional District, driven by its D+26 Cook PVI—ranking among the nation's most Democratic seats—and Rep. Sam Liccardo's incumbency after his 58% 2024 general election win in a top-two matchup against fellow Democrat Evan Low. Silicon Valley demographics, with affluent, educated voters, reinforce this edge, as seen in consistent Democratic margins exceeding 50% historically. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, with filings closed and the June 2 nonpartisan primary looming. Realistic challenges include a scandal tarnishing Liccardo, a fragmented Democratic primary yielding a weak nominee, or a national Republican wave propelling a GOP contender through to November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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