Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 93.5% in the AR-01 House race due to the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+16), where Donald Trump won by 33 points in 2020, and incumbent Rep. Rick Crawford's dominant position after securing 65% in the March GOP primary against challenger Steve Parsons. Crawford maintains a fundraising edge with over $600,000 cash on hand and chairs a key House Agriculture subcommittee, facing Democrat Thad Gendke, who won a low-turnout primary. No significant developments in the past 30 days have altered dynamics; traders price in minimal upset risk ahead of the November 5 election, though a Crawford scandal, withdrawal, or national Democratic wave could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAR-01 House Election Winner
AR-01 House Election Winner
$15,061 Vol.
$15,061 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$15,061 Vol.
$15,061 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$10,879 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$4,183 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 93.5% in the AR-01 House race due to the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+16), where Donald Trump won by 33 points in 2020, and incumbent Rep. Rick Crawford's dominant position after securing 65% in the March GOP primary against challenger Steve Parsons. Crawford maintains a fundraising edge with over $600,000 cash on hand and chairs a key House Agriculture subcommittee, facing Democrat Thad Gendke, who won a low-turnout primary. No significant developments in the past 30 days have altered dynamics; traders price in minimal upset risk ahead of the November 5 election, though a Crawford scandal, withdrawal, or national Democratic wave could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$15,061End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 93.5% in the AR-01 House race due to the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+16), where Donald Trump won by 33 points in 2020, and incumbent Rep. Rick Crawford's dominant position after securing 65% in the March GOP primary against challenger Steve Parsons. Crawford maintains a fundraising edge with over $600,000 cash on hand and chairs a key House Agriculture subcommittee, facing Democrat Thad Gendke, who won a low-turnout primary. No significant developments in the past 30 days have altered dynamics; traders price in minimal upset risk ahead of the November 5 election, though a Crawford scandal, withdrawal, or national Democratic wave could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,061End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 93.5% in the AR-01 House race due to the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+16), where Donald Trump won by 33 points in 2020, and incumbent Rep. Rick Crawford's dominant position after securing 65% in the March GOP primary against challenger Steve Parsons. Crawford maintains a fundraising edge with over $600,000 cash on hand and chairs a key House Agriculture subcommittee, facing Democrat Thad Gendke, who won a low-turnout primary. No significant developments in the past 30 days have altered dynamics; traders price in minimal upset risk ahead of the November 5 election, though a Crawford scandal, withdrawal, or national Democratic wave could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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