Traders' 77% implied probability on "No" reflects Alexandre de Moraes' entrenched position on Brazil's Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF), where removal requires impeachment approval by a simple majority in the Chamber of Deputies followed by a two-thirds Senate supermajority—a high bar unmet despite repeated attempts by Bolsonaro allies. Recent rejections of impeachment petitions by Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco in July 2024 underscore limited congressional traction, even amid ongoing controversies over Moraes' rulings on misinformation, social media blocks, and January 8 investigations. No fresh legislative momentum has emerged in the past month, with Moraes continuing to issue authoritative decisions, reinforcing trader consensus on his stability through his lifetime tenure until age 75. Upcoming congressional sessions could test this, but procedural hurdles dominate sentiment.