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Politics·Midterms

Alaska Governor Election Winner

Market icon
Politics·Midterms

Alaska Governor Election Winner

Matt Claman 48%

Bruce Walden 48%

Hank Kroll 45%

Tom Begich 31%

Polymarket

$706,095 Vol.

Matt Claman 48%

Bruce Walden 48%

Hank Kroll 45%

Tom Begich 31%

Polymarket

$706,095 Vol.

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Matt Claman

$15 Vol.

48%

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Bruce Walden

$15 Vol.

48%

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Hank Kroll

$15 Vol.

45%

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Tom Begich

$94,412 Vol.

31%

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Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

$42 Vol.

21%

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Treg Taylor

$2,678 Vol.

15%

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Bernadette Wilson

$129,540 Vol.

20%

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Nancy Dahlstrom

$98,034 Vol.

9%

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Edna DeVries

$0 Vol.

7%

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Click Bishop

$2,291 Vol.

5%

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Lisa Murkowski

$2,185 Vol.

5%

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James Parkin

$0 Vol.

4%

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David Bronson

$2,157 Vol.

4%

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Shelley Hughes

$0 Vol.

3%

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Mary Peltola

$319,626 Vol.

3%

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Matt Heilala

$23,418 Vol.

1%

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Adam Crum

$31,666 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.In Alaska's open 2026 gubernatorial race, with incumbent Mike Dunleavy term-limited, trader consensus favors Democrat Tom Begich at 30.5% implied probability to win the nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18, reflecting recent New York Times and LRP polls showing him leading the first-round vote amid a fragmented field of over 16 candidates. Republicans like Matt Claman, Bruce Walden, and Hank Kroll cluster tightly at 22-25%, buoyed by early fundraising hauls—including self-funding surges from candidates like Treg Taylor—but hampered by vote-splitting and no dominant frontrunner. The race remains competitive due to Alaska's ranked-choice voting, cross-party appeal potential, and lack of consolidation; separation could arise from upcoming debates, major endorsements, or GOP infighting before the primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Volume
$706,095
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.In Alaska's open 2026 gubernatorial race, with incumbent Mike Dunleavy term-limited, trader consensus favors Democrat Tom Begich at 30.5% implied probability to win the nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18, reflecting recent New York Times and LRP polls showing him leading the first-round vote amid a fragmented field of over 16 candidates. Republicans like Matt Claman, Bruce Walden, and Hank Kroll cluster tightly at 22-25%, buoyed by early fundraising hauls—including self-funding surges from candidates like Treg Taylor—but hampered by vote-splitting and no dominant frontrunner. The race remains competitive due to Alaska's ranked-choice voting, cross-party appeal potential, and lack of consolidation; separation could arise from upcoming debates, major endorsements, or GOP infighting before the primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Volume
$706,095
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

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Will Tom Begich advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Alaska Governor Election Winner " is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tom Begich" at 31%, followed by "Matt Claman" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Alaska Governor Election Winner " has generated $706.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Alaska Governor Election Winner ," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Alaska Governor Election Winner " is "Tom Begich" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Matt Claman" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Alaska Governor Election Winner " define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.