Trader consensus favors a Munich high near 5°C (24% implied probability), propelled by the latest ECMWF and DWD ensemble forecasts converging on 4-6°C amid a cool northerly airflow from a Scandinavian blocking high. Recent model runs show tight spreads differentiating leaders: 5°C edges 4°C due to projected afternoon solar insolation piercing partial cloud cover, while 6°C trails on risks of increased overcast from an approaching front. Observations this week confirm a negative temperature anomaly versus the 11°C March 27 climatological norm, with low odds for 10°C+ (2.5%) reflecting upper-air pattern stability and negligible subzero risk (1.8%) absent deepened nocturnal inversions. Key watch: tomorrow's 12Z updates for resolution tweaks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Munich on March 27?
Highest temperature in Munich on March 27?
5°C 24%
4°C 22%
6°C 20%
7°C 19%
0°C or below
2%
1°C
15%
2°C
15%
3°C
17%
4°C
22%
5°C
24%
6°C
20%
7°C
19%
8°C
19%
9°C
18%
10°C or higher
3%
5°C 24%
4°C 22%
6°C 20%
7°C 19%
0°C or below
2%
1°C
15%
2°C
15%
3°C
17%
4°C
22%
5°C
24%
6°C
20%
7°C
19%
8°C
19%
9°C
18%
10°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a Munich high near 5°C (24% implied probability), propelled by the latest ECMWF and DWD ensemble forecasts converging on 4-6°C amid a cool northerly airflow from a Scandinavian blocking high. Recent model runs show tight spreads differentiating leaders: 5°C edges 4°C due to projected afternoon solar insolation piercing partial cloud cover, while 6°C trails on risks of increased overcast from an approaching front. Observations this week confirm a negative temperature anomaly versus the 11°C March 27 climatological norm, with low odds for 10°C+ (2.5%) reflecting upper-air pattern stability and negligible subzero risk (1.8%) absent deepened nocturnal inversions. Key watch: tomorrow's 12Z updates for resolution tweaks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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