Trader consensus clusters tightly around 3–6°C for Munich's highest temperature on March 26, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting peaks in this range amid a persistent cool northerly airflow and lingering post-frontal cloud cover. Recent 00z runs show ECMWF ensembles averaging near 4°C with low spread, while GFS hints at 5–6°C potential from brief ridging, explaining the razor-thin odds separation (21.5% at 4°C vs. 21.0% at 5°C). Munich's late-March climatology favors 9–11°C highs, but a negative temperature anomaly from Arctic air influx caps upside risk, with sub-3°C or 7°C+ outcomes trailing due to model convergence below seasonal norms. Watch DWD updates for resolution-defining tweaks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Munich on March 26?
Highest temperature in Munich on March 26?
4°C 22%
5°C 21%
3°C 19%
6°C 18%
-1°C or below
2%
0°C
11%
1°C
13%
2°C
17%
3°C
19%
4°C
22%
5°C
21%
6°C
18%
7°C
16%
8°C
16%
9°C or higher
2%
4°C 22%
5°C 21%
3°C 19%
6°C 18%
-1°C or below
2%
0°C
11%
1°C
13%
2°C
17%
3°C
19%
4°C
22%
5°C
21%
6°C
18%
7°C
16%
8°C
16%
9°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters tightly around 3–6°C for Munich's highest temperature on March 26, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting peaks in this range amid a persistent cool northerly airflow and lingering post-frontal cloud cover. Recent 00z runs show ECMWF ensembles averaging near 4°C with low spread, while GFS hints at 5–6°C potential from brief ridging, explaining the razor-thin odds separation (21.5% at 4°C vs. 21.0% at 5°C). Munich's late-March climatology favors 9–11°C highs, but a negative temperature anomaly from Arctic air influx caps upside risk, with sub-3°C or 7°C+ outcomes trailing due to model convergence below seasonal norms. Watch DWD updates for resolution-defining tweaks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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