Trader sentiment for Chicago's highest temperature on March 22 heavily favors 63°F or below (39%) and 64-65°F (26%), driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast pinpointing a high near 64°F amid mostly sunny skies and light southerly winds. Ensemble models from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF converge on mid-60s peaks, reflecting a mild intrusion of warm air ahead of an approaching cold front, with minimal cloud cover allowing efficient daytime heating limited by shallow boundary layers. Recent 12z model runs show slight cooling from prior warmth, aligning with upper-air analyses indicating stable jet stream positioning; historical March norms around 45°F underscore this as an above-average but capped outlook, tempering higher-temperature bets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
63°F or below 39%
64-65°F 25.8%
68-69°F 8.8%
66-67°F 7.7%
$39,708 Vol.
$39,708 Vol.
63°F or below
39%
64-65°F
26%
66-67°F
8%
68-69°F
9%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
<1%
63°F or below 39%
64-65°F 25.8%
68-69°F 8.8%
66-67°F 7.7%
$39,708 Vol.
$39,708 Vol.
63°F or below
39%
64-65°F
26%
66-67°F
8%
68-69°F
9%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Chicago's highest temperature on March 22 heavily favors 63°F or below (39%) and 64-65°F (26%), driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast pinpointing a high near 64°F amid mostly sunny skies and light southerly winds. Ensemble models from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF converge on mid-60s peaks, reflecting a mild intrusion of warm air ahead of an approaching cold front, with minimal cloud cover allowing efficient daytime heating limited by shallow boundary layers. Recent 12z model runs show slight cooling from prior warmth, aligning with upper-air analyses indicating stable jet stream positioning; historical March norms around 45°F underscore this as an above-average but capped outlook, tempering higher-temperature bets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes