Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors mild highs of 16°C and 17°C at 27.5% each for Paris on March 23, driven by the latest ECMWF and Météo-France ensemble forecasts converging on 15-17°C amid a high-pressure ridge ushering Atlantic mild air into northern France. Historical March averages hover around 13°C, but positive North Atlantic Oscillation patterns this season have boosted spring warmth, elevating odds for 19°C to 19%. Differentiation hinges on cloud cover variability—persistent overcast could cap at 15°C or 14°C (39.5% combined), while sunnier breaks push toward 17-19°C; cold frontal risks remain low at under 5% for sub-12°C, per GFS model spread. Watch afternoon updates for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Paris on March 23?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 23?
16°C 28%
17°C 28%
15°C 20%
19°C 18%
10°C or below
1%
11°C
3%
12°C
4%
13°C
9%
14°C
20%
15°C
20%
16°C
28%
17°C
28%
18°C
5%
19°C
18%
20°C or higher
4%
16°C 28%
17°C 28%
15°C 20%
19°C 18%
10°C or below
1%
11°C
3%
12°C
4%
13°C
9%
14°C
20%
15°C
20%
16°C
28%
17°C
28%
18°C
5%
19°C
18%
20°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors mild highs of 16°C and 17°C at 27.5% each for Paris on March 23, driven by the latest ECMWF and Météo-France ensemble forecasts converging on 15-17°C amid a high-pressure ridge ushering Atlantic mild air into northern France. Historical March averages hover around 13°C, but positive North Atlantic Oscillation patterns this season have boosted spring warmth, elevating odds for 19°C to 19%. Differentiation hinges on cloud cover variability—persistent overcast could cap at 15°C or 14°C (39.5% combined), while sunnier breaks push toward 17-19°C; cold frontal risks remain low at under 5% for sub-12°C, per GFS model spread. Watch afternoon updates for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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