Latest ECMWF and AEMET ensemble forecasts, showing peak highs of 17-18°C for Madrid on March 23, drive the tight trader consensus with 33.5% implied probability for 17°C and 32% for 18°C, edging out 16°C at 25.5%. These models account for mild Atlantic inflows and reduced cloud cover boosting insolation, against a March historical average high of 16°C. Differentiating factors include GFS runs leaning warmer at 18-19°C due to stronger boundary layer mixing, while cooler HRES outliers at 16°C reflect potential northerly gusts; traders weigh this model spread amid low volatility in recent Madrid spring data. Resolution hinges on official AEMET observations from Retiro station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on March 23?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 23?
17°C 31%
18°C 23%
16°C 22%
19°C 15%
$13,520 Vol.
$13,520 Vol.
14°C or below
3%
15°C
3%
16°C
27%
17°C
32%
18°C
32%
19°C
20%
20°C
3%
21°C
3%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
1%
17°C 31%
18°C 23%
16°C 22%
19°C 15%
$13,520 Vol.
$13,520 Vol.
14°C or below
3%
15°C
3%
16°C
27%
17°C
32%
18°C
32%
19°C
20%
20°C
3%
21°C
3%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and AEMET ensemble forecasts, showing peak highs of 17-18°C for Madrid on March 23, drive the tight trader consensus with 33.5% implied probability for 17°C and 32% for 18°C, edging out 16°C at 25.5%. These models account for mild Atlantic inflows and reduced cloud cover boosting insolation, against a March historical average high of 16°C. Differentiating factors include GFS runs leaning warmer at 18-19°C due to stronger boundary layer mixing, while cooler HRES outliers at 16°C reflect potential northerly gusts; traders weigh this model spread amid low volatility in recent Madrid spring data. Resolution hinges on official AEMET observations from Retiro station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes