Latest ensemble weather models from authoritative sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and China's National Meteorological Center converge on a high temperature of 14°C in Shanghai on March 21, driving the market's near-unanimous 100% implied probability for this outcome amid cool northerly winds and cloudy conditions suppressing daytime heating. Historical data shows Shanghai's late-March highs averaging 15-17°C but with frequent dips below 15°C during cold snaps, aligning with current trader consensus. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen southerly warm front or model divergence in final 24-hour updates from the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, which could nudge peaks toward 15-16°C if cloud cover clears unexpectedly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Shanghái el 21 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Shanghái el 21 de marzo?
14°C 100.0%
10°C o menos <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$342,520 Vol.
$342,520 Vol.
10°C o menos
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Sí
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C o más
No
14°C 100.0%
10°C o menos <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$342,520 Vol.
$342,520 Vol.
10°C o menos
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Sí
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C o más
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble weather models from authoritative sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and China's National Meteorological Center converge on a high temperature of 14°C in Shanghai on March 21, driving the market's near-unanimous 100% implied probability for this outcome amid cool northerly winds and cloudy conditions suppressing daytime heating. Historical data shows Shanghai's late-March highs averaging 15-17°C but with frequent dips below 15°C during cold snaps, aligning with current trader consensus. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen southerly warm front or model divergence in final 24-hour updates from the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, which could nudge peaks toward 15-16°C if cloud cover clears unexpectedly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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