Trader consensus heavily favors a 30°C high temperature in Sao Paulo on March 21, driven by aligned ensemble forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and Brazil's INMET, which project peaks of 29-31°C under persistent high-pressure dominance and minimal cloud cover. Current observations show stable atmospheric conditions with light northerly winds, consistent with historical March averages of 27-30°C at Guarulhos Airport, the likely resolution site. This positioning reflects low model spread and recent forecast updates showing no major deviations. Challenges could arise from an unexpected cold front or intense thunderstorm suppressing the peak below 29°C, or amplified solar heating pushing to 31°C+, though probabilities remain slim per multi-model consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 21?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 21?
30°C 95%
31°C 4.0%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$56,755 Vol.
$56,755 Vol.
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
95%
31°C
4%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 95%
31°C 4.0%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$56,755 Vol.
$56,755 Vol.
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
95%
31°C
4%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Ventana de disputas
Final
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a 30°C high temperature in Sao Paulo on March 21, driven by aligned ensemble forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and Brazil's INMET, which project peaks of 29-31°C under persistent high-pressure dominance and minimal cloud cover. Current observations show stable atmospheric conditions with light northerly winds, consistent with historical March averages of 27-30°C at Guarulhos Airport, the likely resolution site. This positioning reflects low model spread and recent forecast updates showing no major deviations. Challenges could arise from an unexpected cold front or intense thunderstorm suppressing the peak below 29°C, or amplified solar heating pushing to 31°C+, though probabilities remain slim per multi-model consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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