Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Sao Paulo high of 30°C (34% implied probability), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime maxima of 29–31°C amid a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge over southeastern Brazil. This setup favors clear skies and radiative heating, boosting urban heat island effects in the city, though afternoon sea breezes from the Atlantic could cap peaks by 1–2°C via evaporative cooling. Historical March averages hover around 28°C, but lingering El Niño warmth has nudged recent days hotter; model spread remains tight at ±2°C, with INMET updates expected today differentiating 29°C from 32°C outcomes based on boundary layer moisture.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 24?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 24?
29°C 37%
30°C 30%
32°C 25%
28°C 21%
25°C o menos
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
6%
28°C
21%
29°C
31%
30°C
33%
31°C
19%
32°C
25%
33°C
5%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
2%
29°C 37%
30°C 30%
32°C 25%
28°C 21%
25°C o menos
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
6%
28°C
21%
29°C
31%
30°C
33%
31°C
19%
32°C
25%
33°C
5%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Sao Paulo high of 30°C (34% implied probability), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime maxima of 29–31°C amid a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge over southeastern Brazil. This setup favors clear skies and radiative heating, boosting urban heat island effects in the city, though afternoon sea breezes from the Atlantic could cap peaks by 1–2°C via evaporative cooling. Historical March averages hover around 28°C, but lingering El Niño warmth has nudged recent days hotter; model spread remains tight at ±2°C, with INMET updates expected today differentiating 29°C from 32°C outcomes based on boundary layer moisture.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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