Trader consensus clusters tightly around 10-12°C for Seoul's March 21 high temperature, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest forecast projecting a daytime peak of 11-12°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show minor divergence—ECMWF warmer at ~12°C due to enhanced solar insolation and urban heat island effects in central Seoul, versus GFS's cooler 10°C tilt from lingering cold air advection. Historical March 21 averages hover at 12.5°C, but current weakening of the Siberian High favors mild conditions; key uncertainty lies in afternoon cloud cover impacting the diurnal maximum, with official Gimpo station readings resolving the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Seoul on March 21?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 21?
12°C 22%
11°C 20%
10°C 19%
9°C 17%
$11,533 Vol.
$11,533 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
4%
8°C
7%
9°C
17%
10°C
19%
11°C
20%
12°C
22%
13°C
9%
14°C or higher
7%
12°C 22%
11°C 20%
10°C 19%
9°C 17%
$11,533 Vol.
$11,533 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
4%
8°C
7%
9°C
17%
10°C
19%
11°C
20%
12°C
22%
13°C
9%
14°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters tightly around 10-12°C for Seoul's March 21 high temperature, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest forecast projecting a daytime peak of 11-12°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show minor divergence—ECMWF warmer at ~12°C due to enhanced solar insolation and urban heat island effects in central Seoul, versus GFS's cooler 10°C tilt from lingering cold air advection. Historical March 21 averages hover at 12.5°C, but current weakening of the Siberian High favors mild conditions; key uncertainty lies in afternoon cloud cover impacting the diurnal maximum, with official Gimpo station readings resolving the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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