Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Miami's highest temperature on March 22 clustering in the 78-83°F range, driven by the National Weather Service's official forecast of a high near 82°F under sunny skies and light southerly winds from a building high-pressure ridge over Florida. Major models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles align closely, projecting peaks of 80-82°F amid warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures boosting daytime heating. Recent model runs over the past 24 hours trended slightly warmer, elevating implied probabilities for 80-81°F (38.5%) and 82-83°F (27.5%) while capping lower bins like 78-79°F (25.5%). Historical March 22 averages hover at 80°F, but current above-normal trends support these leading outcomes, with uncertainty from potential sea breeze influences.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Miami on March 22?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 22?
80-81°F 38%
78-79°F 27%
82-83°F 21%
84-85°F 8%
$92,784 Vol.
$92,784 Vol.
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
5%
78-79°F
27%
80-81°F
38%
82-83°F
21%
84-85°F
8%
86-87°F
3%
88°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 38%
78-79°F 27%
82-83°F 21%
84-85°F 8%
$92,784 Vol.
$92,784 Vol.
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
5%
78-79°F
27%
80-81°F
38%
82-83°F
21%
84-85°F
8%
86-87°F
3%
88°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Miami's highest temperature on March 22 clustering in the 78-83°F range, driven by the National Weather Service's official forecast of a high near 82°F under sunny skies and light southerly winds from a building high-pressure ridge over Florida. Major models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles align closely, projecting peaks of 80-82°F amid warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures boosting daytime heating. Recent model runs over the past 24 hours trended slightly warmer, elevating implied probabilities for 80-81°F (38.5%) and 82-83°F (27.5%) while capping lower bins like 78-79°F (25.5%). Historical March 22 averages hover at 80°F, but current above-normal trends support these leading outcomes, with uncertainty from potential sea breeze influences.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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