Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Seoul's highest temperature on March 22 clustering tightly around 11–12°C (combined ~50% implied probability), driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest forecast model run projecting a daytime high of 11.5°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds limiting warm advection. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS models—ECMWF leans slightly cooler at 10–11°C due to anticipated mid-level troughing, while GFS hints at 12–13°C if high pressure builds faster—against March historical averages of 11.8°C. Urban heat island effects in Seoul could nudge readings higher, but incoming cold air mass caps upside risk, with key resolution hinging on 00Z model updates tomorrow.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Seoul on March 22?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 22?
12°C 26%
10°C 25%
11°C 24%
8°C 17%
4°C or below
3%
5°C
8%
6°C
8%
7°C
8%
8°C
17%
9°C
17%
10°C
25%
11°C
24%
12°C
26%
13°C
13%
14°C or higher
14%
12°C 26%
10°C 25%
11°C 24%
8°C 17%
4°C or below
3%
5°C
8%
6°C
8%
7°C
8%
8°C
17%
9°C
17%
10°C
25%
11°C
24%
12°C
26%
13°C
13%
14°C or higher
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Seoul's highest temperature on March 22 clustering tightly around 11–12°C (combined ~50% implied probability), driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest forecast model run projecting a daytime high of 11.5°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds limiting warm advection. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS models—ECMWF leans slightly cooler at 10–11°C due to anticipated mid-level troughing, while GFS hints at 12–13°C if high pressure builds faster—against March historical averages of 11.8°C. Urban heat island effects in Seoul could nudge readings higher, but incoming cold air mass caps upside risk, with key resolution hinging on 00Z model updates tomorrow.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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