Traders' near-unanimous consensus on a 28°C high in Taipei on March 18 stems from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration forecast, corroborated by ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS, projecting peak afternoon temperatures around 28°C amid light winds and ample sunshine under a high-pressure ridge. Recent observations show March 2024 trending 2-3°C above seasonal norms due to warm East Asian air masses, with urban heat islands amplifying city readings. This positioning aligns with verified hourly projections from multiple agencies. Realistic challenges include an unanticipated marine layer or cold surge lowering it below 28°C, though current upper-air patterns make this improbable; conversely, prolonged clear skies could nudge it to 29°C if humidity dips further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Taipei on March 18?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 18?
28°C 100.0%
26°C <1%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
$154,911 Vol.
$154,911 Vol.
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
26°C <1%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
$154,911 Vol.
$154,911 Vol.
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei Central Weather Administration, specifically the highest reading under the "Temperature" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/C/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46692
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 16, 2026, 2:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders' near-unanimous consensus on a 28°C high in Taipei on March 18 stems from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration forecast, corroborated by ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS, projecting peak afternoon temperatures around 28°C amid light winds and ample sunshine under a high-pressure ridge. Recent observations show March 2024 trending 2-3°C above seasonal norms due to warm East Asian air masses, with urban heat islands amplifying city readings. This positioning aligns with verified hourly projections from multiple agencies. Realistic challenges include an unanticipated marine layer or cold surge lowering it below 28°C, though current upper-air patterns make this improbable; conversely, prolonged clear skies could nudge it to 29°C if humidity dips further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes