Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Shanghai high of 17°C (38%) or 18°C (35.5%) on March 22, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 17-18°C peaks amid mild southerly winds advecting warmer air from the Yangtze basin. Recent observations show early spring warming, with March averages around 14-16°C but amplified by Shanghai's urban heat island effect, pushing extremes higher. Differentiation stems from model spread: ECMWF leans cooler at 17.2°C due to projected afternoon cloudiness reducing insolation, while GFS implies 18.1°C under clearer skies; historical data for March 22 shows a 2°C standard deviation, heightening uncertainty near resolution thresholds from official China Meteorological Administration readings. Upcoming 12-hour updates could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 22?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 22?
17°C 37%
18°C 34%
19°C 15%
20°C 6.7%
$261,769 Vol.
$261,769 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
37%
18°C
34%
19°C
15%
20°C
7%
21°C or higher
5%
17°C 37%
18°C 34%
19°C 15%
20°C 6.7%
$261,769 Vol.
$261,769 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
37%
18°C
34%
19°C
15%
20°C
7%
21°C or higher
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Shanghai high of 17°C (38%) or 18°C (35.5%) on March 22, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 17-18°C peaks amid mild southerly winds advecting warmer air from the Yangtze basin. Recent observations show early spring warming, with March averages around 14-16°C but amplified by Shanghai's urban heat island effect, pushing extremes higher. Differentiation stems from model spread: ECMWF leans cooler at 17.2°C due to projected afternoon cloudiness reducing insolation, while GFS implies 18.1°C under clearer skies; historical data for March 22 shows a 2°C standard deviation, heightening uncertainty near resolution thresholds from official China Meteorological Administration readings. Upcoming 12-hour updates could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes