Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Dallas highs of 88-93°F on March 25, driven by NOAA's Weather Prediction Center and NWS forecasts indicating a potent upper-level ridge amplifying southerly winds and warm air advection from the Gulf of Mexico. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show clustered peaks around 89-92°F, with 90-91°F edging ahead at 26.5% amid minor divergences in boundary layer mixing and afternoon convective potential. Recent developments, including the 12Z model runs, highlight reduced cloud cover risks versus earlier outlooks, boosting upper-90 odds slightly while capping extremes below 96°F due to lingering mid-level moisture inhibiting stronger heating. Historical March volatility underscores uncertainty, but current synoptic setup favors these tight bands over cooler deviations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Dallas on March 25?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 25?
90-91°F 25%
92-93°F 23%
88-89°F 23%
86-87°F 19%
79°F or below
2%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
9%
84-85°F
14%
86-87°F
19%
88-89°F
23%
90-91°F
25%
92-93°F
23%
94-95°F
13%
96-97°F
1%
98°F or higher
1%
90-91°F 25%
92-93°F 23%
88-89°F 23%
86-87°F 19%
79°F or below
2%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
9%
84-85°F
14%
86-87°F
19%
88-89°F
23%
90-91°F
25%
92-93°F
23%
94-95°F
13%
96-97°F
1%
98°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Dallas highs of 88-93°F on March 25, driven by NOAA's Weather Prediction Center and NWS forecasts indicating a potent upper-level ridge amplifying southerly winds and warm air advection from the Gulf of Mexico. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show clustered peaks around 89-92°F, with 90-91°F edging ahead at 26.5% amid minor divergences in boundary layer mixing and afternoon convective potential. Recent developments, including the 12Z model runs, highlight reduced cloud cover risks versus earlier outlooks, boosting upper-90 odds slightly while capping extremes below 96°F due to lingering mid-level moisture inhibiting stronger heating. Historical March volatility underscores uncertainty, but current synoptic setup favors these tight bands over cooler deviations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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