Traders' near-unanimous consensus on a 25°C high in Shenzhen on March 21 stems from authoritative forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models like ECMWF, which converge on a daytime maximum of 24-26°C amid mild southerly flows and seasonal norms. Historical data shows March 21 averages around 23°C, with rare exceedances above 27°C, reinforcing this positioning as low-volatility spring weather prevails under neutral ENSO conditions. Challenges could arise from an unforeseen subtropical ridge strengthening, pushing convective heating higher, or urban heat island amplification in Shenzhen's dense core, though ensemble probabilities assign under 5% odds to deviations beyond 26°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Shenzhen el 21 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Shenzhen el 21 de marzo?
25°C 100.0%
18°C o menos <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$172,836 Vol.
$172,836 Vol.
18°C o menos
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Sí
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C o más
No
25°C 100.0%
18°C o menos <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$172,836 Vol.
$172,836 Vol.
18°C o menos
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Sí
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C o más
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders' near-unanimous consensus on a 25°C high in Shenzhen on March 21 stems from authoritative forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models like ECMWF, which converge on a daytime maximum of 24-26°C amid mild southerly flows and seasonal norms. Historical data shows March 21 averages around 23°C, with rare exceedances above 27°C, reinforcing this positioning as low-volatility spring weather prevails under neutral ENSO conditions. Challenges could arise from an unforeseen subtropical ridge strengthening, pushing convective heating higher, or urban heat island amplification in Shenzhen's dense core, though ensemble probabilities assign under 5% odds to deviations beyond 26°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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