Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 27°C as Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 22, with 100% implied probability, anchored by latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration showing daytime highs peaking at 26-27°C amid mild southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Historical March data from local stations confirms average highs around 25°C, with low diurnal variability this season due to a stable subtropical ridge suppressing extremes. Real-time observations via automated weather stations reinforce this, reporting morning lows near 22°C and gradual warming without convective triggers. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen urban heat island surge or late-afternoon thunderstorm lapse, potentially nudging it to 28°C, though ensemble models assign under 1% odds to such outliers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 22?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 22?
27°C 100.0%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
30°C or higher <1%
$300,911 Vol.
$300,911 Vol.
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
27°C 100.0%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
30°C or higher <1%
$300,911 Vol.
$300,911 Vol.
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:14 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 27°C as Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 22, with 100% implied probability, anchored by latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration showing daytime highs peaking at 26-27°C amid mild southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Historical March data from local stations confirms average highs around 25°C, with low diurnal variability this season due to a stable subtropical ridge suppressing extremes. Real-time observations via automated weather stations reinforce this, reporting morning lows near 22°C and gradual warming without convective triggers. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen urban heat island surge or late-afternoon thunderstorm lapse, potentially nudging it to 28°C, though ensemble models assign under 1% odds to such outliers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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