Trader sentiment for NYC's March 26 high temperature remains fragmented, with 25.5% implied probabilities on both 66°F or higher and 47°F or below reflecting wide model spread amid transitional late-winter patterns. NOAA's GFS ensemble forecasts a mild 55-62°F range under ridging, while ECMWF leans cooler at 48-53°F with potential northerly flow, diverging due to jet stream uncertainty over the Northeast. Historical Central Park data shows March 26 averages 53°F but with ±12°F variability from frontal passages. The 47°F low threshold risks cool snaps from recent Atlantic blocking, versus warmth if high pressure builds; watch 00z model runs for catalysts shifting odds toward mid-50s clusters at 25%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on March 26?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 26?
60-61°F 27%
54-55°F 25%
56-57°F 25%
58-59°F 25%
47°F or below
15%
48-49°F
12%
50-51°F
14%
52-53°F
18%
54-55°F
25%
56-57°F
25%
58-59°F
25%
60-61°F
27%
62-63°F
15%
64-65°F
12%
66°F or higher
25%
60-61°F 27%
54-55°F 25%
56-57°F 25%
58-59°F 25%
47°F or below
15%
48-49°F
12%
50-51°F
14%
52-53°F
18%
54-55°F
25%
56-57°F
25%
58-59°F
25%
60-61°F
27%
62-63°F
15%
64-65°F
12%
66°F or higher
25%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for NYC's March 26 high temperature remains fragmented, with 25.5% implied probabilities on both 66°F or higher and 47°F or below reflecting wide model spread amid transitional late-winter patterns. NOAA's GFS ensemble forecasts a mild 55-62°F range under ridging, while ECMWF leans cooler at 48-53°F with potential northerly flow, diverging due to jet stream uncertainty over the Northeast. Historical Central Park data shows March 26 averages 53°F but with ±12°F variability from frontal passages. The 47°F low threshold risks cool snaps from recent Atlantic blocking, versus warmth if high pressure builds; watch 00z model runs for catalysts shifting odds toward mid-50s clusters at 25%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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