Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 16–19°C for Shanghai's March 26 high temperature, reflecting short-range forecast uncertainty from divergent global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which show a 2–3°C spread amid variable early spring synoptics. Recent developments include a mild high-pressure ridge over eastern China boosting diurnal heating potential, countered by lingering northerly winds and partial cloud cover limiting peaks above 18°C. Observations from Pudong station yesterday hit 15°C, aligning with late-March climatology averaging 16°C highs, while urban heat island effects could nudge outcomes higher. Watch CMA updates today for refined probabilities as boundary layer mixing clarifies.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 26?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 26?
16°C 28%
18°C 27%
17°C 21%
19°C 20%
12°C or below
2%
13°C
15%
14°C
17%
15°C
16%
16°C
28%
17°C
21%
18°C
27%
19°C
20%
20°C
13%
21°C
11%
22°C or higher
2%
16°C 28%
18°C 27%
17°C 21%
19°C 20%
12°C or below
2%
13°C
15%
14°C
17%
15°C
16%
16°C
28%
17°C
21%
18°C
27%
19°C
20%
20°C
13%
21°C
11%
22°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:18 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 16–19°C for Shanghai's March 26 high temperature, reflecting short-range forecast uncertainty from divergent global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which show a 2–3°C spread amid variable early spring synoptics. Recent developments include a mild high-pressure ridge over eastern China boosting diurnal heating potential, countered by lingering northerly winds and partial cloud cover limiting peaks above 18°C. Observations from Pudong station yesterday hit 15°C, aligning with late-March climatology averaging 16°C highs, while urban heat island effects could nudge outcomes higher. Watch CMA updates today for refined probabilities as boundary layer mixing clarifies.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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