National Weather Service forecasts drive trader consensus toward a high temperature of 51°F or below in New York City on March 23, with 43% implied probability, reflecting model guidance from GFS and ECMWF ensembles projecting daytime highs near 50-52°F amid a persistent upper-level trough and cool northerly flow. Recent developments include a slight downward revision in afternoon model runs, emphasizing lingering effects from recent Canadian air masses, while climatological normals for late March average 52°F. Uncertainty persists due to potential diurnal variations and cloud cover, but low odds on 60°F+ align with verified soundings showing stable boundary layers capping warmth, positioning mid-50s bins as secondary contenders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on March 23?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 23?
51°F or below 43%
52-53°F 25%
54-55°F 16%
56-57°F 13%
$24,672 Vol.
$24,672 Vol.
51°F or below
43%
52-53°F
25%
54-55°F
16%
56-57°F
13%
58-59°F
4%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70°F or higher
<1%
51°F or below 43%
52-53°F 25%
54-55°F 16%
56-57°F 13%
$24,672 Vol.
$24,672 Vol.
51°F or below
43%
52-53°F
25%
54-55°F
16%
56-57°F
13%
58-59°F
4%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts drive trader consensus toward a high temperature of 51°F or below in New York City on March 23, with 43% implied probability, reflecting model guidance from GFS and ECMWF ensembles projecting daytime highs near 50-52°F amid a persistent upper-level trough and cool northerly flow. Recent developments include a slight downward revision in afternoon model runs, emphasizing lingering effects from recent Canadian air masses, while climatological normals for late March average 52°F. Uncertainty persists due to potential diurnal variations and cloud cover, but low odds on 60°F+ align with verified soundings showing stable boundary layers capping warmth, positioning mid-50s bins as secondary contenders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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