Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a Madrid high of 12°C on March 21, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on daytime maxima in the 11-13°C range amid a persistent northerly flow channeling cool Atlantic air over Iberia. AEMET's official outlook corroborates this, projecting cloudy conditions with limited insolation capping temperatures below seasonal norms of 16-18°C. Historical data shows March highs rarely dip this low without precipitation, which models now deem unlikely. Challenges include an unexpected breakdown of the blocking high, allowing southerly advection for 14°C+, or microscale urban heat effects pushing readings higher—though current soundings and satellite imagery support the cool bias persisting through resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on March 21?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 21?
12°C 93.9%
13°C 4%
16°C <1%
14°C <1%
$59,799 Vol.
$59,799 Vol.
11°C
<1%
12°C
94%
13°C
4%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
12°C 93.9%
13°C 4%
16°C <1%
14°C <1%
$59,799 Vol.
$59,799 Vol.
11°C
<1%
12°C
94%
13°C
4%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a Madrid high of 12°C on March 21, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on daytime maxima in the 11-13°C range amid a persistent northerly flow channeling cool Atlantic air over Iberia. AEMET's official outlook corroborates this, projecting cloudy conditions with limited insolation capping temperatures below seasonal norms of 16-18°C. Historical data shows March highs rarely dip this low without precipitation, which models now deem unlikely. Challenges include an unexpected breakdown of the blocking high, allowing southerly advection for 14°C+, or microscale urban heat effects pushing readings higher—though current soundings and satellite imagery support the cool bias persisting through resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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