Trader sentiment for Madrid's highest temperature on March 22 reveals deep uncertainty, with market-implied odds split evenly at 22.5% between 14°C or below and 24°C or higher, driven by divergent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models. The ECMWF mean projects a high around 18-19°C, but spread exceeds 10°C due to competing scenarios: a cool Atlantic front risking clouds and showers (favoring ≤14°C), versus building Azores High pressure enabling sunnier skies and advection of warmer air masses (pushing ≥24°C). AEMET's latest outlook leans mild at 17-20°C, aligning with 45% probability across 17-21°C bins and March climatology averaging 17°C highs, though model convergence is pending today's 12Z runs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 22 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 22 de marzo?
24°C o más 23%
19°C 21%
20°C 18%
21°C 18%
14°C o menos
11%
15°C
11%
16°C
14%
17°C
11%
18°C
12%
19°C
21%
20°C
18%
21°C
18%
22°C
17%
23°C
15%
24°C o más
23%
24°C o más 23%
19°C 21%
20°C 18%
21°C 18%
14°C o menos
11%
15°C
11%
16°C
14%
17°C
11%
18°C
12%
19°C
21%
20°C
18%
21°C
18%
22°C
17%
23°C
15%
24°C o más
23%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Madrid's highest temperature on March 22 reveals deep uncertainty, with market-implied odds split evenly at 22.5% between 14°C or below and 24°C or higher, driven by divergent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models. The ECMWF mean projects a high around 18-19°C, but spread exceeds 10°C due to competing scenarios: a cool Atlantic front risking clouds and showers (favoring ≤14°C), versus building Azores High pressure enabling sunnier skies and advection of warmer air masses (pushing ≥24°C). AEMET's latest outlook leans mild at 17-20°C, aligning with 45% probability across 17-21°C bins and March climatology averaging 17°C highs, though model convergence is pending today's 12Z runs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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