Ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS drive the tight market-implied odds favoring 11°C (32%), 12°C (32%), and 13°C (26.5%) as Ankara's highest temperature on March 22, reflecting a consensus high near 12°C amid mild spring conditions. Recent runs show slight divergence due to uncertainties in diel cloud cover and southerly winds, which could cap peaks at 11°C or allow 13°C under clearer skies, per Turkish State Meteorological Service updates. Historical late-March averages hover at 11-13°C, with urban heat island effects in Ankara adding ~1°C; traders weigh these against ensemble spreads of ±2°C, awaiting final 12Z model guidance for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
11°C 32%
12°C 32%
13°C 26%
9°C 6%
6°C or below
3%
7°C
3%
8°C
4%
9°C
6%
10°C
13%
11°C
32%
12°C
32%
13°C
26%
14°C
3%
15°C
8%
16°C or higher
3%
11°C 32%
12°C 32%
13°C 26%
9°C 6%
6°C or below
3%
7°C
3%
8°C
4%
9°C
6%
10°C
13%
11°C
32%
12°C
32%
13°C
26%
14°C
3%
15°C
8%
16°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS drive the tight market-implied odds favoring 11°C (32%), 12°C (32%), and 13°C (26.5%) as Ankara's highest temperature on March 22, reflecting a consensus high near 12°C amid mild spring conditions. Recent runs show slight divergence due to uncertainties in diel cloud cover and southerly winds, which could cap peaks at 11°C or allow 13°C under clearer skies, per Turkish State Meteorological Service updates. Historical late-March averages hover at 11-13°C, with urban heat island effects in Ankara adding ~1°C; traders weigh these against ensemble spreads of ±2°C, awaiting final 12Z model guidance for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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