Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 23-26°C for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on March 22, driven by latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts averaging 25°C amid model divergence from southerly winds moderating a warm late-summer pattern. Recent SMN Argentina updates show current temperatures in the low 20s°C with incoming cool air masses from Patagonia clashing against residual subtropical highs, creating uncertainty in peak heating. Historical March highs average 26°C, but La Niña influences favor slightly cooler anomalies; differentiation hinges on diurnal instability and cloud cover evolution, with 25°C edging ahead on balanced probabilities from verified soundings and satellite data. Upcoming hourly model runs could shift odds further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 22?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 22?
25°C 27%
26°C 26%
24°C 25%
23°C 24%
20°C or below
10%
21°C
8%
22°C
8%
23°C
24%
24°C
25%
25°C
27%
26°C
26%
27°C
21%
28°C
19%
29°C
9%
30°C or higher
11%
25°C 27%
26°C 26%
24°C 25%
23°C 24%
20°C or below
10%
21°C
8%
22°C
8%
23°C
24%
24°C
25%
25°C
27%
26°C
26%
27°C
21%
28°C
19%
29°C
9%
30°C or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 23-26°C for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on March 22, driven by latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts averaging 25°C amid model divergence from southerly winds moderating a warm late-summer pattern. Recent SMN Argentina updates show current temperatures in the low 20s°C with incoming cool air masses from Patagonia clashing against residual subtropical highs, creating uncertainty in peak heating. Historical March highs average 26°C, but La Niña influences favor slightly cooler anomalies; differentiation hinges on diurnal instability and cloud cover evolution, with 25°C edging ahead on balanced probabilities from verified soundings and satellite data. Upcoming hourly model runs could shift odds further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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