Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and German Weather Service (DWD) pinpoint a high near 13°C in Munich on March 22, driven by a mild Atlantic ridge bringing southerly flows and above-average spring warmth, boosting that outcome to 43% implied probability. Recent model runs updated March 20 show convergence around 12-14°C, with 14°C at 28% reflecting upside potential from high-pressure persistence, while 12°C (23.5%) hedges cooler cloud cover risks. Historical data indicates March highs average 11-13°C, but positive temperature anomalies (+1-2°C) from recent weeks align trader consensus, tempered by typical diurnal variability and urban heat effects in Munich. Upcoming DWD bulletins could shift odds further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Munich on March 22?
Highest temperature in Munich on March 22?
13°C 44%
14°C 29%
12°C 24%
15°C 3.8%
$26,141 Vol.
$26,141 Vol.
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
24%
13°C
44%
14°C
29%
15°C
4%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
<1%
13°C 44%
14°C 29%
12°C 24%
15°C 3.8%
$26,141 Vol.
$26,141 Vol.
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
24%
13°C
44%
14°C
29%
15°C
4%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and German Weather Service (DWD) pinpoint a high near 13°C in Munich on March 22, driven by a mild Atlantic ridge bringing southerly flows and above-average spring warmth, boosting that outcome to 43% implied probability. Recent model runs updated March 20 show convergence around 12-14°C, with 14°C at 28% reflecting upside potential from high-pressure persistence, while 12°C (23.5%) hedges cooler cloud cover risks. Historical data indicates March highs average 11-13°C, but positive temperature anomalies (+1-2°C) from recent weeks align trader consensus, tempered by typical diurnal variability and urban heat effects in Munich. Upcoming DWD bulletins could shift odds further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes