Latest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and ECMWF ensemble runs project Austin's March 25 high temperature clustering around 84°F under a robust upper-level ridge over Texas, fueling the neck-and-neck trader odds for 83°F or below (15.5%) versus 84-85°F (15.5%). Differentiating factors include boundary layer mixing depth and potential mid-level clouds: clearer skies and stronger subsidence favor the slim edge to 84-85°F, while any marine layer persistence caps at 83°F. Recent 00Z model updates reveal a warming bias, elevating 98-99°F (13.0%) amid dry soils and southerly flow reminiscent of 2023's early heat spikes, though historical March averages hover at 75-78°F with low outlier risk above 100°F (1.8%). Traders eye 12Z forecasts for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Austin on March 25?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 25?
83°F or below 16%
84-85°F 16%
98-99°F 14%
88-89°F 11%
83°F or below
16%
84-85°F
16%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
11%
90-91°F
11%
92-93°F
10%
94-95°F
10%
96-97°F
9%
98-99°F
14%
100-101°F
11%
102°F or higher
2%
83°F or below 16%
84-85°F 16%
98-99°F 14%
88-89°F 11%
83°F or below
16%
84-85°F
16%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
11%
90-91°F
11%
92-93°F
10%
94-95°F
10%
96-97°F
9%
98-99°F
14%
100-101°F
11%
102°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and ECMWF ensemble runs project Austin's March 25 high temperature clustering around 84°F under a robust upper-level ridge over Texas, fueling the neck-and-neck trader odds for 83°F or below (15.5%) versus 84-85°F (15.5%). Differentiating factors include boundary layer mixing depth and potential mid-level clouds: clearer skies and stronger subsidence favor the slim edge to 84-85°F, while any marine layer persistence caps at 83°F. Recent 00Z model updates reveal a warming bias, elevating 98-99°F (13.0%) amid dry soils and southerly flow reminiscent of 2023's early heat spikes, though historical March averages hover at 75-78°F with low outlier risk above 100°F (1.8%). Traders eye 12Z forecasts for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes