MetService's latest forecast for Wellington, New Zealand, on March 25 points to a high near 20°C under fine spells with increasing cloud, driving trader consensus toward that outcome at 23% implied probability, closely trailed by 19°C and 18°C. This tight clustering reflects model ensemble spread from ECMWF and GFS, where northerly airflow advection could push temperatures to 21°C or higher if high pressure holds, but southerly sea breezes—common in Wellington's coastal microclimate—often cap peaks at 18-19°C via evaporative cooling. Historical March maxima average 20.1°C with a standard deviation of 2.5°C, amplifying uncertainty amid transitioning La Niña patterns; watch afternoon updates for frontal timing shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Wellington on March 25?
Highest temperature in Wellington on March 25?
19°C 27%
20°C 23%
18°C 23%
17°C 18%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
3%
16°C
6%
17°C
18%
18°C
23%
19°C
27%
20°C
23%
21°C
18%
22°C
11%
23°C or higher
4%
19°C 27%
20°C 23%
18°C 23%
17°C 18%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
3%
16°C
6%
17°C
18%
18°C
23%
19°C
27%
20°C
23%
21°C
18%
22°C
11%
23°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...MetService's latest forecast for Wellington, New Zealand, on March 25 points to a high near 20°C under fine spells with increasing cloud, driving trader consensus toward that outcome at 23% implied probability, closely trailed by 19°C and 18°C. This tight clustering reflects model ensemble spread from ECMWF and GFS, where northerly airflow advection could push temperatures to 21°C or higher if high pressure holds, but southerly sea breezes—common in Wellington's coastal microclimate—often cap peaks at 18-19°C via evaporative cooling. Historical March maxima average 20.1°C with a standard deviation of 2.5°C, amplifying uncertainty amid transitioning La Niña patterns; watch afternoon updates for frontal timing shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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