Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a NYC high temperature of 52-53°F (31%) or 50-51°F (29.5%) on March 25, driven by converging NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles projecting peaks near 51°F amid a weak upper-level trough. Recent 12z runs show the GFS trending 1-2°F cooler due to lingering cloud cover from an Atlantic low, differentiating it from warmer Euro hints of afternoon clearing, while hi-res NAM guidance emphasizes urban heat island amplification potentially pushing toward 53°F. Historical late-March averages hover at 52°F, but model spread of ±3°F underscores uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and frontal timing, with NWS official forecast centering on 50-54°F.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on March 25?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 25?
52-53°F 33%
50-51°F 30%
54-55°F 21%
48-49°F 15%
41°F or below
1%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
3%
46-47°F
13%
48-49°F
15%
50-51°F
30%
52-53°F
31%
54-55°F
21%
56-57°F
10%
58-59°F
11%
60°F or higher
4%
52-53°F 33%
50-51°F 30%
54-55°F 21%
48-49°F 15%
41°F or below
1%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
3%
46-47°F
13%
48-49°F
15%
50-51°F
30%
52-53°F
31%
54-55°F
21%
56-57°F
10%
58-59°F
11%
60°F or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a NYC high temperature of 52-53°F (31%) or 50-51°F (29.5%) on March 25, driven by converging NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles projecting peaks near 51°F amid a weak upper-level trough. Recent 12z runs show the GFS trending 1-2°F cooler due to lingering cloud cover from an Atlantic low, differentiating it from warmer Euro hints of afternoon clearing, while hi-res NAM guidance emphasizes urban heat island amplification potentially pushing toward 53°F. Historical late-March averages hover at 52°F, but model spread of ±3°F underscores uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and frontal timing, with NWS official forecast centering on 50-54°F.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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