Trader consensus on Chengdu's March 25 high temperature tilts toward 18–21°C, with 19°C and 20°C leading at roughly 20% implied odds each, driven by ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS forecasting peaks in this mild spring range amid weak southerly air flows. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows average March highs near 18°C, but urban heat island effects in the Sichuan Basin often nudge readings 1–2°C warmer, boosting probabilities for 19–21°C over cooler outliers. Recent model updates highlight uncertainty from potential afternoon cloud cover suppressing peaks below 20°C, while dry conditions favor 24°C+ tails at 17%, differentiating clustered mid-teens outcomes via convective potential. Final observations from local stations will resolve precise maxima.