Trader consensus strongly favors a Chengdu high of 19°C or higher on March 23 (61.5% implied probability), propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting daytime peaks near 19-21°C under mild anticyclonic conditions and southerly airflow. Recent observations confirm warming trends, with March 22 highs hitting 18.5°C per China Meteorological Administration data—above the March historical average of 17°C—fueled by clear skies and urban heat effects. Odds cluster around 18°C (26.5%) and 17°C (12.5%) due to potential afternoon cloudiness tempering peaks, while negligible chances below 16°C reflect absent cold fronts in regional upper-air patterns. Forecast updates tomorrow could shift these market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 23?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 23?
19°C or higher 61%
18°C 27%
17°C 13%
16°C 3.0%
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
2%
14°C
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
3%
17°C
13%
18°C
27%
19°C or higher
61%
19°C or higher 61%
18°C 27%
17°C 13%
16°C 3.0%
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
2%
14°C
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
3%
17°C
13%
18°C
27%
19°C or higher
61%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus strongly favors a Chengdu high of 19°C or higher on March 23 (61.5% implied probability), propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting daytime peaks near 19-21°C under mild anticyclonic conditions and southerly airflow. Recent observations confirm warming trends, with March 22 highs hitting 18.5°C per China Meteorological Administration data—above the March historical average of 17°C—fueled by clear skies and urban heat effects. Odds cluster around 18°C (26.5%) and 17°C (12.5%) due to potential afternoon cloudiness tempering peaks, while negligible chances below 16°C reflect absent cold fronts in regional upper-air patterns. Forecast updates tomorrow could shift these market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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