Latest ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models like ECMWF and GFS point to a Seoul high of 13-15°C on March 25, driving trader optimism for 15°C or higher at 32.5% implied probability amid a broad distribution signaling high uncertainty. Spring variability in East Asia, influenced by shifting Siberian cold air masses and southerly winds, underpins the spread: warmer outcomes (15°C+) hinge on high-pressure ridging and urban heat amplification in Seoul, while cooler readings below 12°C (17.5% combined for 12°C and lower) depend on northerly outbreaks or cloud cover. Historical March 25 averages hover around 12°C, but recent mild trends and model consensus tilt sentiment upward, with daily updates potentially shifting odds before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Seoul on March 25?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 25?
15°C or higher 32%
13°C 22%
14°C 21%
12°C 18%
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
2%
9°C
3%
10°C
8%
11°C
11%
12°C
18%
13°C
22%
14°C
21%
15°C or higher
32%
15°C or higher 32%
13°C 22%
14°C 21%
12°C 18%
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
2%
9°C
3%
10°C
8%
11°C
11%
12°C
18%
13°C
22%
14°C
21%
15°C or higher
32%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models like ECMWF and GFS point to a Seoul high of 13-15°C on March 25, driving trader optimism for 15°C or higher at 32.5% implied probability amid a broad distribution signaling high uncertainty. Spring variability in East Asia, influenced by shifting Siberian cold air masses and southerly winds, underpins the spread: warmer outcomes (15°C+) hinge on high-pressure ridging and urban heat amplification in Seoul, while cooler readings below 12°C (17.5% combined for 12°C and lower) depend on northerly outbreaks or cloud cover. Historical March 25 averages hover around 12°C, but recent mild trends and model consensus tilt sentiment upward, with daily updates potentially shifting odds before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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