Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Seoul high of 13°C (27%) or 14°C (23.5%) on March 24, driven by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) forecasts projecting a daytime maximum of 12-14°C under mild high-pressure influence and retreating Siberian air mass. Differentiating factors include ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering at 13.2°C, with spread from variable cloud cover—sunny intervals could boost to 15°C via enhanced insolation, while northerly gusts or overcast skies cap at 11-12°C. Historical March 24 averages hover at 11.5°C, but 2024's warmer anomaly (ENSO-neutral transition) supports upside risk; monitor KMA's 1200 KST update for refined boundary layer stability insights.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Seoul on March 24?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 24?
13°C 27%
14°C 23%
12°C 19%
11°C 16%
$10,043 Vol.
$10,043 Vol.
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
4%
11°C
16%
12°C
19%
13°C
27%
14°C
23%
15°C or higher
16%
13°C 27%
14°C 23%
12°C 19%
11°C 16%
$10,043 Vol.
$10,043 Vol.
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
4%
11°C
16%
12°C
19%
13°C
27%
14°C
23%
15°C or higher
16%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Seoul high of 13°C (27%) or 14°C (23.5%) on March 24, driven by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) forecasts projecting a daytime maximum of 12-14°C under mild high-pressure influence and retreating Siberian air mass. Differentiating factors include ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering at 13.2°C, with spread from variable cloud cover—sunny intervals could boost to 15°C via enhanced insolation, while northerly gusts or overcast skies cap at 11-12°C. Historical March 24 averages hover at 11.5°C, but 2024's warmer anomaly (ENSO-neutral transition) supports upside risk; monitor KMA's 1200 KST update for refined boundary layer stability insights.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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