Trader consensus clusters tightly around 15-17°C for Paris's highest temperature on March 21, driven by leading weather models like ECMWF and Météo-France forecasting mild conditions under a high-pressure ridge ushering Atlantic warmth into Western Europe. Recent soundings confirm above-average temperatures, with morning lows around 8-10°C allowing daytime peaks in this range, but diurnal cloud variability and northerly breezes introduce differentiation—favoring 15°C if overcast, 17°C under clearer skies. Historical March maxima average 12°C, underscoring the anomaly from this blocking pattern, while ensemble spreads below 1°C signal low uncertainty and matched odds. Upcoming hourly updates from official stations will sharpen resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Paris on March 21?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 21?
16°C 24%
17°C 23%
15°C 21%
14°C 15%
8°C or below
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
1%
11°C
3%
12°C
5%
13°C
6%
14°C
15%
15°C
27%
16°C
24%
17°C
23%
18°C or higher
7%
16°C 24%
17°C 23%
15°C 21%
14°C 15%
8°C or below
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
1%
11°C
3%
12°C
5%
13°C
6%
14°C
15%
15°C
27%
16°C
24%
17°C
23%
18°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters tightly around 15-17°C for Paris's highest temperature on March 21, driven by leading weather models like ECMWF and Météo-France forecasting mild conditions under a high-pressure ridge ushering Atlantic warmth into Western Europe. Recent soundings confirm above-average temperatures, with morning lows around 8-10°C allowing daytime peaks in this range, but diurnal cloud variability and northerly breezes introduce differentiation—favoring 15°C if overcast, 17°C under clearer skies. Historical March maxima average 12°C, underscoring the anomaly from this blocking pattern, while ensemble spreads below 1°C signal low uncertainty and matched odds. Upcoming hourly updates from official stations will sharpen resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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