Trader sentiment for San Francisco's March 25 high temperature splits sharply due to model ensemble uncertainty, with a 25.5% implied probability for 70°F or higher reflecting GFS projections of a building high-pressure ridge aloft, potentially overriding coastal cooling for record warmth. In contrast, the 17.5% odds on 68-69°F and 13% on 54-55°F stem from ECMWF emphasis on persistent marine stratus layers, which historically cap Bay Area highs via low-level advection fog—common in late March, suppressing peaks below 65°F on 60% of similar setups per NOAA climatology. NWS point forecast leans mid-60s amid light onshore flow, but diurnal clearing variability and 18z model updates could pivot odds toward ridge-driven spikes or overcast moderation.