The latest National Weather Service forecast pins Dallas's March 21 high at around 94°F, driving trader consensus toward the 94-95°F outcome at 24.5% implied probability, with 96-97°F (20.5%) and 98°F+ (21.5%) in tight contention. A robust high-pressure ridge over the southern Plains promotes subsidence warming and clear skies, advecting dry, subtropical air from Mexico that boosts afternoon boundary-layer mixing. GFS ensembles skew hotter toward 97-99°F via deeper mixing, while ECMWF shows cooler bias near 93°F due to subtle cloud intrusions; low dewpoints under 40°F enable potential record challenges. Model spread hinges on ridge amplitude and winds—00z runs could sharpen odds as uncertainty narrows.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Dallas on March 21?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 21?
94-95°F 23%
96-97°F 20%
92-93°F 20%
98°F or higher 16%
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
4%
86-87°F
4%
88-89°F
7%
90-91°F
13%
92-93°F
20%
94-95°F
28%
96-97°F
20%
98°F or higher
16%
94-95°F 23%
96-97°F 20%
92-93°F 20%
98°F or higher 16%
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
4%
86-87°F
4%
88-89°F
7%
90-91°F
13%
92-93°F
20%
94-95°F
28%
96-97°F
20%
98°F or higher
16%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...The latest National Weather Service forecast pins Dallas's March 21 high at around 94°F, driving trader consensus toward the 94-95°F outcome at 24.5% implied probability, with 96-97°F (20.5%) and 98°F+ (21.5%) in tight contention. A robust high-pressure ridge over the southern Plains promotes subsidence warming and clear skies, advecting dry, subtropical air from Mexico that boosts afternoon boundary-layer mixing. GFS ensembles skew hotter toward 97-99°F via deeper mixing, while ECMWF shows cooler bias near 93°F due to subtle cloud intrusions; low dewpoints under 40°F enable potential record challenges. Model spread hinges on ridge amplitude and winds—00z runs could sharpen odds as uncertainty narrows.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes