Trader sentiment on Seattle's March 21 high temperature favors 50-51°F at 31.5% implied probability, edging out 48-49°F at 27.5%, driven by the latest NOAA and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on 49-52°F amid a marine layer and overcast skies suppressing insolation. Recent model runs from the GFS highlight weak high-pressure ridging offshore, limiting daytime heating despite mild southerly flows, with dewpoints in the upper 40s°F capping warmth. Historical March 21 highs average 54°F but skew lower under similar cloudy, post-frontal conditions observed this week; upcoming 18Z model updates could shift odds if clearing emerges, though current trader consensus reflects model spread and verified Sea-Tac observations averaging 49°F lately.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Seattle on March 21?
Highest temperature in Seattle on March 21?
50-51°F 28%
48-49°F 28%
52-53°F 11%
46-47°F 10.8%
41°F or below
1%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
2%
46-47°F
11%
48-49°F
28%
50-51°F
28%
52-53°F
11%
54-55°F
8%
56-57°F
8%
58-59°F
2%
60°F or higher
2%
50-51°F 28%
48-49°F 28%
52-53°F 11%
46-47°F 10.8%
41°F or below
1%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
2%
46-47°F
11%
48-49°F
28%
50-51°F
28%
52-53°F
11%
54-55°F
8%
56-57°F
8%
58-59°F
2%
60°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Seattle's March 21 high temperature favors 50-51°F at 31.5% implied probability, edging out 48-49°F at 27.5%, driven by the latest NOAA and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on 49-52°F amid a marine layer and overcast skies suppressing insolation. Recent model runs from the GFS highlight weak high-pressure ridging offshore, limiting daytime heating despite mild southerly flows, with dewpoints in the upper 40s°F capping warmth. Historical March 21 highs average 54°F but skew lower under similar cloudy, post-frontal conditions observed this week; upcoming 18Z model updates could shift odds if clearing emerges, though current trader consensus reflects model spread and verified Sea-Tac observations averaging 49°F lately.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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