Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble weather models, with ECMWF and GFS forecasts converging on Madrid's March 24 high between 16°C and 19°C, driven by a mild westerly flow from the Atlantic suppressing colder air masses while limiting extreme heating. Leading 17-18°C odds (26.5% each) stem from recent 00Z model runs showing afternoon peaks under partly cloudy skies and light winds around 5-10 km/h, allowing modest solar insolation. Slightly lower 16-19°C probabilities account for ensemble spread from potential overnight cooling or diurnally variable cloud cover; historical March 24 averages hover near 16°C, but current sea surface temperatures 1-2°C above normal nudge sentiment warmer. AEMET updates expected soon could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on March 24?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 24?
16°C 26%
19°C 23%
17°C 22%
18°C 20%
13°C or below
2%
14°C
2%
15°C
4%
16°C
26%
17°C
27%
18°C
27%
19°C
26%
20°C
15%
21°C
3%
22°C
9%
23°C or higher
4%
16°C 26%
19°C 23%
17°C 22%
18°C 20%
13°C or below
2%
14°C
2%
15°C
4%
16°C
26%
17°C
27%
18°C
27%
19°C
26%
20°C
15%
21°C
3%
22°C
9%
23°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble weather models, with ECMWF and GFS forecasts converging on Madrid's March 24 high between 16°C and 19°C, driven by a mild westerly flow from the Atlantic suppressing colder air masses while limiting extreme heating. Leading 17-18°C odds (26.5% each) stem from recent 00Z model runs showing afternoon peaks under partly cloudy skies and light winds around 5-10 km/h, allowing modest solar insolation. Slightly lower 16-19°C probabilities account for ensemble spread from potential overnight cooling or diurnally variable cloud cover; historical March 24 averages hover near 16°C, but current sea surface temperatures 1-2°C above normal nudge sentiment warmer. AEMET updates expected soon could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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