Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 7–10°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on March 26, with 9°C edging out at 22% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF ensemble mean of 8.7°C and GFS forecast peaking near 9.5°C, reflecting a mild Atlantic inflow amid a weakening polar vortex. Differentiating factors include model spread from jet stream uncertainty—colder 6–7°C outcomes hinge on northerly winds persisting, while 10–13°C+ requires high-pressure ridging, as seen in 20% of ensembles. Historical late-March averages hover at 8–9°C, but recent soundings show rising geopotential heights favoring the warmer cluster; watch IMGW updates for resolution-shifting precision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 26?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 26?
9°C 22%
10°C 21%
7°C 20%
8°C 20%
3°C or below
9%
4°C
11%
5°C
14%
6°C
16%
7°C
20%
8°C
20%
9°C
22%
10°C
21%
11°C
17%
12°C
12%
13°C or higher
19%
9°C 22%
10°C 21%
7°C 20%
8°C 20%
3°C or below
9%
4°C
11%
5°C
14%
6°C
16%
7°C
20%
8°C
20%
9°C
22%
10°C
21%
11°C
17%
12°C
12%
13°C or higher
19%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 7–10°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on March 26, with 9°C edging out at 22% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF ensemble mean of 8.7°C and GFS forecast peaking near 9.5°C, reflecting a mild Atlantic inflow amid a weakening polar vortex. Differentiating factors include model spread from jet stream uncertainty—colder 6–7°C outcomes hinge on northerly winds persisting, while 10–13°C+ requires high-pressure ridging, as seen in 20% of ensembles. Historical late-March averages hover at 8–9°C, but recent soundings show rising geopotential heights favoring the warmer cluster; watch IMGW updates for resolution-shifting precision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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