Trader sentiment for Los Angeles' highest temperature on March 26 reflects deep uncertainty in long-range weather models, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles diverging sharply: roughly half forecast persistent marine layer onshore flow capping highs at 67°F or below amid lingering cool-season patterns, while the other half predict a high-pressure ridge and weak Santa Ana winds pushing temperatures to 86°F or higher. Historical data from LAX observations show March 26 averages around 72°F, but interannual variability spikes with Pacific sea surface temperatures and jet stream positioning currently neutral post-El Niño. Key differentiator is upper-level ridging strength; traders await refined 10-14 day outlooks from the National Weather Service, expected mid-week, which could shift market-implied odds toward mid-70s consensus ranges like 74-75°F.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Los Angeles on March 26?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 26?
82-83°F 21%
67°F or below 17%
86°F or higher 14%
70-71°F 9%
67°F or below
17%
68-69°F
9%
70-71°F
9%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
9%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
21%
84-85°F
5%
86°F or higher
14%
82-83°F 21%
67°F or below 17%
86°F or higher 14%
70-71°F 9%
67°F or below
17%
68-69°F
9%
70-71°F
9%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
9%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
21%
84-85°F
5%
86°F or higher
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Los Angeles' highest temperature on March 26 reflects deep uncertainty in long-range weather models, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles diverging sharply: roughly half forecast persistent marine layer onshore flow capping highs at 67°F or below amid lingering cool-season patterns, while the other half predict a high-pressure ridge and weak Santa Ana winds pushing temperatures to 86°F or higher. Historical data from LAX observations show March 26 averages around 72°F, but interannual variability spikes with Pacific sea surface temperatures and jet stream positioning currently neutral post-El Niño. Key differentiator is upper-level ridging strength; traders await refined 10-14 day outlooks from the National Weather Service, expected mid-week, which could shift market-implied odds toward mid-70s consensus ranges like 74-75°F.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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