Divergent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models underpin the neck-and-neck market-implied odds for Ankara's highest temperature on March 26, with 8°C or below (25%) and 18°C or higher (24.5%) leading amid tight spreads across 10-17°C bins. The Turkish State Meteorological Service's latest outlook points to a high near 12°C under variable cloud cover and light winds, favoring mid-teens options at 17-18%, but uncertainty in an incoming low-pressure trough's trajectory—potentially stalling cold advection or allowing southerly flow—differentiates extremes. Historical late-March highs average 13°C, yet model spread of ±6°C reflects jet stream waviness, prompting traders to balance tail risks as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Ankara on March 26?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 26?
13°C 19%
14°C 18%
11°C 17%
12°C 17%
8°C or below
17%
9°C
17%
10°C
16%
11°C
17%
12°C
17%
13°C
19%
14°C
18%
15°C
17%
16°C
14%
17°C
12%
18°C or higher
17%
13°C 19%
14°C 18%
11°C 17%
12°C 17%
8°C or below
17%
9°C
17%
10°C
16%
11°C
17%
12°C
17%
13°C
19%
14°C
18%
15°C
17%
16°C
14%
17°C
12%
18°C or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Divergent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models underpin the neck-and-neck market-implied odds for Ankara's highest temperature on March 26, with 8°C or below (25%) and 18°C or higher (24.5%) leading amid tight spreads across 10-17°C bins. The Turkish State Meteorological Service's latest outlook points to a high near 12°C under variable cloud cover and light winds, favoring mid-teens options at 17-18%, but uncertainty in an incoming low-pressure trough's trajectory—potentially stalling cold advection or allowing southerly flow—differentiates extremes. Historical late-March highs average 13°C, yet model spread of ±6°C reflects jet stream waviness, prompting traders to balance tail risks as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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