Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 20–22°C highs for Wuhan on March 22, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on peak afternoon temperatures in this range amid a high-pressure ridge promoting mild conditions. Recent 00Z runs slightly favor 21°C (33.5% implied odds) over 20°C (30%) and 22°C (25%), reflecting minor divergences where ECMWF edges warmer due to clearer skies and lighter southerly winds, while GFS tempers with shallow cloud intrusions. This year's early spring anomaly—about 4–5°C above the March historical average of 16°C—stems from reduced cold air outbreaks, though short-range mesoscale uncertainties like boundary-layer mixing could swing outcomes by 1–2°C. Official CMA updates expected soon may sharpen resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 22?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 22?
21°C 34%
22°C 24%
20°C 23%
19°C 12%
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C
4%
19°C
12%
20°C
30%
21°C
34%
22°C
24%
23°C
5%
24°C or higher
2%
21°C 34%
22°C 24%
20°C 23%
19°C 12%
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C
4%
19°C
12%
20°C
30%
21°C
34%
22°C
24%
23°C
5%
24°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:59 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 20–22°C highs for Wuhan on March 22, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on peak afternoon temperatures in this range amid a high-pressure ridge promoting mild conditions. Recent 00Z runs slightly favor 21°C (33.5% implied odds) over 20°C (30%) and 22°C (25%), reflecting minor divergences where ECMWF edges warmer due to clearer skies and lighter southerly winds, while GFS tempers with shallow cloud intrusions. This year's early spring anomaly—about 4–5°C above the March historical average of 16°C—stems from reduced cold air outbreaks, though short-range mesoscale uncertainties like boundary-layer mixing could swing outcomes by 1–2°C. Official CMA updates expected soon may sharpen resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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