Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models drive trader consensus toward a 16°C high in Wuhan on March 23 (34.5% implied probability), edging out 17°C (29%) and 15°C (25.5%), as a lingering cool front suppresses daytime peaks amid partly cloudy conditions. Recent surface observations indicate overnight lows around 10°C, with light southerly winds and urban heat island effects supporting a diurnal range of 6-8°C typical for late March in the Yangtze River basin. Key differentiators include boundary layer stability—persistent low clouds could cap at 15°C via reduced insolation, while better mixing favors 17°C—though all models rule out extremes beyond 20°C given jet stream positioning. Hourly CMA updates remain pivotal for final trader positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 23?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 23?
15°C 35%
16°C 35%
17°C 18%
14°C 12.7%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
15%
15°C
25%
16°C
35%
17°C
29%
18°C
8%
19°C
4%
20°C
3%
21°C or higher
1%
15°C 35%
16°C 35%
17°C 18%
14°C 12.7%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
15%
15°C
25%
16°C
35%
17°C
29%
18°C
8%
19°C
4%
20°C
3%
21°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models drive trader consensus toward a 16°C high in Wuhan on March 23 (34.5% implied probability), edging out 17°C (29%) and 15°C (25.5%), as a lingering cool front suppresses daytime peaks amid partly cloudy conditions. Recent surface observations indicate overnight lows around 10°C, with light southerly winds and urban heat island effects supporting a diurnal range of 6-8°C typical for late March in the Yangtze River basin. Key differentiators include boundary layer stability—persistent low clouds could cap at 15°C via reduced insolation, while better mixing favors 17°C—though all models rule out extremes beyond 20°C given jet stream positioning. Hourly CMA updates remain pivotal for final trader positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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