Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Wuhan high of 17°C (29.5% implied probability), driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting mild spring conditions with highs clustering at 16-18°C amid a weakening polar vortex and southerly flow. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows late-March averages around 16.5°C, but recent observations of 14-16°C daily highs this week, combined with low wind shear and minimal precipitation risk, differentiate warmer outcomes from cooler ones below 15°C. Uncertainty lingers in cloud cover from an approaching trough, potentially capping peaks, while radiative cooling nights keep baselines stable—key for traders eyeing resolution via official station data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Wuhan el 24 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Wuhan el 24 de marzo?
17°C 30%
15°C 23%
18°C 21%
16°C 19%
9°C o menos
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
2%
13°C
6%
14°C
4%
15°C
23%
16°C
19%
17°C
30%
18°C
21%
19°C o más
16%
17°C 30%
15°C 23%
18°C 21%
16°C 19%
9°C o menos
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
2%
13°C
6%
14°C
4%
15°C
23%
16°C
19%
17°C
30%
18°C
21%
19°C o más
16%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Wuhan high of 17°C (29.5% implied probability), driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting mild spring conditions with highs clustering at 16-18°C amid a weakening polar vortex and southerly flow. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows late-March averages around 16.5°C, but recent observations of 14-16°C daily highs this week, combined with low wind shear and minimal precipitation risk, differentiate warmer outcomes from cooler ones below 15°C. Uncertainty lingers in cloud cover from an approaching trough, potentially capping peaks, while radiative cooling nights keep baselines stable—key for traders eyeing resolution via official station data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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