Trader consensus heavily favors 22°C (42.5% implied probability) as Beijing's highest temperature on March 22, driven by the latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF models projecting daytime highs near 22°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds. Recent observations show Beijing's early March averages hovering 1-2°C above historical norms of 13-15°C due to persistent high-pressure systems fostering mild conditions, while a weakening cold front diminishes chances for cooler outcomes like 20°C (9%). Ensemble model spreads indicate low volatility, with 21-23°C encompassing over 80% of probabilities, though urban heat island effects could nudge readings upward if solar insolation intensifies. Upcoming hourly updates from Beijing Capital Airport observations will refine these odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on March 22?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 22?
22°C 44%
21°C 24%
23°C 20%
20°C 10%
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
4%
20°C
10%
21°C
24%
22°C
44%
23°C
20%
24°C
5%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
22°C 44%
21°C 24%
23°C 20%
20°C 10%
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
4%
20°C
10%
21°C
24%
22°C
44%
23°C
20%
24°C
5%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:59 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 22°C (42.5% implied probability) as Beijing's highest temperature on March 22, driven by the latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF models projecting daytime highs near 22°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds. Recent observations show Beijing's early March averages hovering 1-2°C above historical norms of 13-15°C due to persistent high-pressure systems fostering mild conditions, while a weakening cold front diminishes chances for cooler outcomes like 20°C (9%). Ensemble model spreads indicate low volatility, with 21-23°C encompassing over 80% of probabilities, though urban heat island effects could nudge readings upward if solar insolation intensifies. Upcoming hourly updates from Beijing Capital Airport observations will refine these odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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