Trader consensus favors 20-21°C highs in Beijing on March 24, driven by aligned ECMWF and GFS model runs forecasting mild southerly flows under a weakening high-pressure ridge, with current surface observations showing daytime temps already nearing 18°C amid light winds. Differentiating the tight race, 22°C odds hinge on sustained clear skies maximizing insolation, while 20°C reflects potential afternoon cloudiness from upstream moisture; 19°C or lower accounts for any late cold front remnants per CMA guidance. Historical late-March averages (~13°C) underscore the warm anomaly from urban heat island effects and El Niño fade, though model spread signals 2-3°C uncertainty ahead of evening updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on March 24?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 24?
21°C 31%
20°C 22%
19°C 14%
22°C 13%
15°C or below
4%
16°C
9%
17°C
6%
18°C
9%
19°C
14%
20°C
28%
21°C
31%
22°C
16%
23°C
8%
24°C
6%
25°C or higher
4%
21°C 31%
20°C 22%
19°C 14%
22°C 13%
15°C or below
4%
16°C
9%
17°C
6%
18°C
9%
19°C
14%
20°C
28%
21°C
31%
22°C
16%
23°C
8%
24°C
6%
25°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 20-21°C highs in Beijing on March 24, driven by aligned ECMWF and GFS model runs forecasting mild southerly flows under a weakening high-pressure ridge, with current surface observations showing daytime temps already nearing 18°C amid light winds. Differentiating the tight race, 22°C odds hinge on sustained clear skies maximizing insolation, while 20°C reflects potential afternoon cloudiness from upstream moisture; 19°C or lower accounts for any late cold front remnants per CMA guidance. Historical late-March averages (~13°C) underscore the warm anomaly from urban heat island effects and El Niño fade, though model spread signals 2-3°C uncertainty ahead of evening updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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